i think businesses are holding back partly because of the election, which is now passed obviously. and the fiscal cliff. i still believe that we're going to end up kicking the can down the road. i think there's lots of pent-up demand in the economy so we're not going to go into a recession. in fact, i think next year we could see some acceleration. one of the key ways to see this is just to look at auto sales for november. they surged to 15.5 million. every time we have a dip in demand because of sandy or something else, we come back. this economy is super resilient and i think we'll be able to go over the cliff or go through the cliff without having a recession. >> i hope you're right. my concern is that you are absolutely wrong. actually the economy is slowing to stall speed and markets could correct badly on the news moving forward. we learned this week that manufacturing contracted in november for the first time in three months. we had analysts on the program talking about the channel checks indicating softness for a second month and today goldman has downgraded growth in the f